Battlepanda: Too many Cassandras


Always trying to figure things out with the minimum of bullshit and the maximum of belligerence.

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Too many Cassandras

You know it's going to know the housing situation cannot continue forever. Yet calling the actual bursting of a bubble is a mug's game. Billmon explains:

[That kind of thing] always makes me nervous about forecasting a top -- as a wiser analyst than me once said, bear markets always begin with full elevators, and right now there may be too many people (including me) standing around talking about a housing bubble for the bubble to pop.

That's what happened during the tech stock bubble, anyway: There were analysts and brokers and traders who spent years arguing prices had gone too far, too fast -- and who were dead wrong for years, until they (and/or their clients) couldn't stand the pain any more and piled into the Nasdaq. Then the bubble burst.