Zubr Trooper

I have to say, I'm not really terrified by those new hovercrafts that China is ordering from the Russians. Sure, they look pretty badass, but six of them is hardly out of line for a large country like China with extensive coastlines.

Maybe it's because Taiwan has been in the crosshairs for so long, I feel rather fatalistic about how much/little arms capabilities China has. Think of it this way, the population of the whole of Taiwan is roughly the same as that of the greater Shanghai metropolitan area. They've got something like 600 missiles aimed at us right now. They probably don't need no stinking hovercrafts if they are determined to overpower Taiwan.

I think whether or not Taiwan can stay independent depends less on the arms in China and more on the attitude of the Taiwanese. We need to demonstrate the intention and ability to defend ourselves -- to make a possible invasion costly to the PRC both economically and politically costly. That, combined with the fact that the PRC leadership, while repressive and despotic, does not seem to be actively insane, ought to keep the issue of the hovercrafts mostly moot.